No exit poll could anticipate Cong will perform so miserably

New Delhi: Of the many exit polls that were conducted to predict the outcome of the Karnataka assembly polls, most said that the state will have a hung assembly, with no party crossing the midway mark. However, the actual results indicate that the BJP may be heading for a majority – even if a wafer-thin one.

The exit polls predicted 79 to 120 seats for the BJP. The India Today Axis poll gave the party the lowest (79-92) seats while the Times Now–Chanakya poll gave it the highest (120) seats. Besides Times Now–Chanakya, the other exit polls that gave a majority to the BJP included ABP News–C Voter (104-116) and Republic TV–Jan Ki Baat (95-114). All other polls failed to anticipate that the BJP would be tantalisingly close to the half-way mark.

By all indications, the BJP may form its government on its own in the state with 111-plus seats.

However, more than the BJP, the exit polls failed to anticipate that the Congress would perform so miserably. No poll had given it less than 72 seats, with India Today-Axis predicting the highest 106-118 seats for it. The News X -CNX gave it the least number of seats (72-78) while others gave it 97 (India TV–VMR) and 73-82 Republic TV – Jan Ki Baat.

As for the JD(S) most of the exit polls proved on the mark, with the party all set to get around 38 seats. The polls had predicted 35-39 (News X – CNX) to 26 (Times Now-Chanakya) seats for the party.

Exit polls: How accurate they were

Party Closest Farthest

BJP News X-CNX India TV-VMR

Congress News X_CNX India Today-Axis

JD (S) News X_CNX ABPNews-C Voter