Maharashtra/ Shiv Sena-BJP impasse continues, 5 possible scenarios in state; govt formation necessary by Nov 9

  • The term of the last assembly will end on November 9, till then the formation of a new government is necessary
  • Discussion stuck on 50:50 formula between BJP-Shiv Sena, Shiv Sena wants equal representation in government
  • For the majority in the 288-member assembly, figure of 145 is required, BJP has 105 and Shiv Sena has 56 MLAs
  • NCP has 54 and Congress has 44 MLAs, other MLAs’ number is 29

Mumbai: The picture of power is not clear even on the 16th day of the announcement of the results of the Maharashtra Assembly elections. The term of the Legislative Assembly expires on 9 November and before that the formation of government is necessary. If no party or coalition claims to form a government by this date, President’s rule can be imposed there.

The BJP is the largest party with 105 seats in the House and its coalition partner Shiv Sena has 56 MLAs. However, there is impasse between the two over share in power.

Maharashtra: BJP is biggest party

Party Seat
BJP 105
Shiv Sena 56
NCP 54
Congress 44
Bahujan Vikas Aghadi 3
AIMIM 2
Independents and other parties 24
Total Seat 288
Important time till Saturday

The term of the last assembly of Maharashtra expires on 9 November. Till then formation of new government is necessary. For this reason, the time till Saturday is important for the politics of Maharashtra.

BJP-Shiv Sena talk stuck on 50:50 formula: Shiv Sena is adamant on the 50:50 formula for the post of Chief Minister. Shiv Sena has demanded that the BJP agreed to contest the elections together on this formula and the post should be shared between the two parties. However, a senior BJP leader told the news agency that the party would not compromise on the post of chief minister.

The Sena legislators met at Matoshree on Thursday at Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray’s residence. After this, the party said that whatever decision Uddhav Thackeray will take will be accepted.

Five Possible Scenarios

  • End of deadlock between BJP-Shiv Sena: The deadlock between the BJP-Shiv Sena should be resolved and either Fadnavis or a candidate with mutual consent of both parties should take oath as Chief Minister. Sources told that talks between the two parties are going on and if everything goes well, a government will be formed soon. New equations of participation in power may also emerge.
  • BJP should form minority government: The BJP has 105 MLAs in the 288-member assembly. A figure of 145 is required for a majority. If the BJP takes 29 independents with them, then its strength will become 134. In such a situation, the party will remain 11 short of the majority figure. In this situation, if the 21 MLAs of other parties remain absent from the assembly during the floor test, the BJP will prove a majority in the House. In the absence of 21 MLAs, the strength of the House will be 267 and the required figure of majority will be 134. The BJP can muster this figure with the help of 29 independents.
  • 45 Sena MLAs should join BJP: BJP MP Sanjay Kakade has claimed that 45 Sena MLAs want to support his party. In such a situation, if 45 MLAs are broken from Shiv Sena with 56 MLAs, then this number will be more than two-thirds and the party-change law will not be implemented. The BJP’s strength of 105 MLAs will reach 150 with the help of these MLAs and it will prove a majority in the House.
  • Shiv Sena may claim support of 170 MLAs: The BJP should not stake claim to form the government and the Shiv Sena with 56 MLAs should submit the claim. This is likely because Shiv Sena MP Sanjay Raut has been consistently claiming that the Shiv Sena has the support of 170 MLAs and this number could be up to 175.
  • Shiv Sena-NCP alliance and Congress should support from outside: The Shiv Sena with 56 MLAs may forge an alliance with the NCP with 54 MLAs and the Congress with 44 MLAs should support it from outside. In such a situation, the number of all three will be 154. However, this is unlikely because the Congress is keeping quiet and NCP chief Sharad Pawar has said after meeting Shiv Sena leader Sanjay Raut that we have got the mandate to sit in the opposition. Pawar also says that we do not know on what basis Raut is claiming the support of 170 MLAs.