Mahagathbandhan may pull down BJP tally in UP to 30

Lucknow: Political analysts say that in the absence of a Modi wave, it would be very difficult for the BJP to repeat its 2014 performance in Uttar Pradesh in the forthcoming general elections. If the Congress, the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) manage to strike an alliance, the BJP could lose even more seats.

By-election losses

In the recent by-elections in the state, the BJP had lost three seats – Gorakhpur, Kairana and Phulpur. It had garnered more than 50 per cent votes in these constituencies in the 2014 elections. If a Mahagathbandhan manages to unite the Dalit, Muslim and OBC voters, it may bring the BJP’s tally in the state down from 73 to 25-30. That is why, the BJP is keen to ensure that the alliance does not fructify.

Shivpal may damage SP

According to political analysts, if the SP contests the elections independently, it may get 10-12 seats. In 2014, it had won in five constituencies. The Secular Morcha – a splinter group of the SP headed by Shivpal Yadav – may hurt the SP in the Yadav belt. If the BSP contests independently, it may get 10-12 seats. Last time, it did not win any seats. The Congress’ tally may go up from two to 5-7. Thus, if the Mahagathbandhan does not become a reality, the BJP may get around 40-50 seats and if it does, it may have to remain content with 25-30 seats.

The issues in UP

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  • Ram Temple
  • Renaming of cities
  • Sugarcane farmers
  • Employment
  • Law and order
  • Note ban and GST[/box]

(Story: Ravi Shrivastava)