India

Exit polls predict KCR to retain Telangana, Rajasthan goes to Congress; close contest in MP, Chhattisgarh

The final results of the elections for the five states will be released on December 11.

New Delhi: Polling in Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram, Telangana and Rajasthan concluded on Friday. Elections were held in the five states since November 20.

Surveys for all states are being released today after polling ended in Rajasthan and Telangana. The results of these Assembly elections will set the tone for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

As per Times Now-CNX Exit Poll Results, the BJP may well retain Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh but lose Rajasthan. Congress is likely to play victory drum in Rajasthan but not in Telangana where the TRS is expected to win.

The final results of the elections for the five states will be released on December 11.

Madhya Pradesh

Madhya Pradesh has 230 seats and the majority mark for a party to win is 116.

A poll conducted by Axis My India – India Today and Aaj Tak predicts a range of 102 to 120 seats for the BJP, seeking a fourth straight term in Madhya Pradesh and 104 to 122 for the Congress. But a Times Now- CNX survey predicts a clear majority for the BJP with 126 seats, while it gives the Congress 89 seats, a marked improvement over its tally in the last election but still trailing the BJP.

India TV poll gives BJP 122-130 seats against its 165 in 2013 and Congress 86-92 seats as opposed to its 58 seats in 2013. The Republic Jan Ki Baat survey predicts 108-128 seats for the BJP, 95 -111 for the Congress

Total Seats 230

Survey By BJP Congress BSP Others
CVoter – Republic TV 90-106 110-126 NA 6-22
CNX – Times Now 126 89 6 9
India TV 122-130 86-92 4-8 8-10
CSDS – ABP 94 126 NA 10
Axis My India – India Today and Aaj Tak 102-120 104-122 1-3 3-8
Republic Jan Ki Baat 108-128 95-115 NA 7

Chhattisgarh

Chhattisgarh has 90 assembly seats and a party needs 46 to form government.

In Chhattisgarh too, the Times Now-CNX exit poll gives the BJP a majority, just about, at 46, and the Congress 35. it predicts that the ambitious partnership between former Congressman Ajit Jogi and Mayawati’s BSP will get 7 seats. India TV’s survey too gives BJP the state at the upper end of a range of 42 to 50 seats, the Congress 32 to 38 and Jogi-BSP 6 to 8.

The CVoter – Republic TV poll, however, shows a closer fight , giving BJP 35-43 seats and the Congress 40-50 and the Jogi-BSP combine 3-7 seats.

The Axis My India – India Today and Aaj Tak poll, however, shows Congress comfortably ahead at 55-65 seats and BJP trailing at 21-31.

Almost all polls show that Maya-Jogi combine, which was hoping to play the kingmaker, would end with seats in the range of 3-8.

Total Seats 90

Survey By BJP Congress BSP+ Others
CVoter – Republic TV 35-43 40-50 55-65 0
CNX – Times Now 46 35 7 2
India TV 42-50 32-38 6-8 1-3
CSDS – ABP 52 35 NA 3
Axis My India – India Today and Aaj Tak 21-31 55-65 4-8 0
Republic Jan Ki Baat 40-48 55-65 5-6 0-1

Rajasthan

Rajasthan has 200 assembly seats and a party needs 101 to form government.

In Rajasthan, two exit polls predict a Congress win. The India Today-Axis My India predicts a range of 119 to 141 seats for the Congress, good to unseat the BJP’s Vasundhara Raje; its gives the BJP 55-72 seats. A party needs 100 seats in the 200-member assembly in Rajasthan, where elections were not held on one seat because a candidate died.

The Times Now-CNX survey too predicts a majority for the Congress at 105 seats, with 85 for the BJP.

The Republic Jan Ki Baat poll, however, predicts a close contest with BJP bagging 83-103 seats against 163 of 2013 and the Congress 81-101 against 21 it got in 2013.

Total Seats 199

Survey By BJP Congress BSP Others
CVoter – Republic TV 52-68 129-145 NA 5-11
CNX – Times Now 85 105 NA 9
India TV 80-90 100-110 1-3 6-8
CSDS – ABP NA NA NA NA
Axis My India – India Today and Aaj Tak 55-72 119-141 0 4-11
Republic Jan Ki Baat 83-103 81-101 NA 15

Telangana

Telangana has 119 assembly seats and a party needs 60 to form government.

In Telangana, the Times Now-CNX poll predicts re-election for the Telangana Rashtriya Samiti or TRS, giving it 66 of the state’s 119 seats. A party can form government with 60 seats. The Republic Jan Ki Baat too shows a KCR win, with a range of 52 to 65 seats and 38 to 52 to the Congress, which contested along with regional allies including the Telugu Desam Party led by Chandrababu Naidu, Chief Minister of neighbouring Andhra Pradesh.

The Axis My India – India Today and Aaj Takpoll puts TRS way ahead with 79-91 seats and the Congress trails at 21-33 seats in the first-ever polls in India’s youngest state.

Total Seats 119

Survey By BJP Congress+ TRS Others
CVoter – Republic TV 5 47-59 48-60 1-13
CNX – Times Now 7 37 66 9
India TV 6-8 32-41 62-70 6-8
CSDS – ABP NA NA NA NA
Axis My India – India Today and Aaj Tak 1-3 21-33 79-91 4-7
Republic Jan Ki Baat 4-7 38-52 52-65 8-14

Mizoram

Mizoram has 40 assembly seats and a party needs 21 to form government.

A single exit poll by Republic TV- CVoter shows a hung house in Mizoram, the last bastion of the Congress in the northeast, with an advantage for the opposition Mizo National Front.

Total Seats 40

Survey By BJP Congress MNF Others
CVoter – Republic TV NA 14-18 16-20 0-3
CNX – Times Now 0 16 18 6
India TV NA NA NA NA
CSDS – ABP NA NA NA NA
Axis My India – India Today and Aaj Tak NA NA NA NA
Republic Jan Ki Baat NA NA NA NA

 

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