New Delhi: Monsoon rain would be normal in August and September, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Saturday.
On the other hand, Skymet, a private weather forecasting agency, has contradicted the IMD predicting ‘below normal’ rains in the remaining two months.
In the second Long Range Forecast for rainfall during the second half of the Southwest Monsoon season, the IMD said the scenario realised till the end of July suggested that distribution of rainfall was very good across the country except Bihar, Jharkhand and north-eastern states.
The favourable distribution of rainfall was expected to continue for the next two months, it said, raising hopes for agricultural operations during the kharif season.
“The rainfall during August-2018 is likely to be 96 plus/minus 9 pc of LPA and expected to be higher than predicted in June. Quantitatively, the rainfall for the country as a whole during the second half of the season is likely to be 95 per cent of LPA (Long Period Average) with a model error of plus or minus 8 pc,” IMD said.
- The private weather forecasting agency downgraded its forecast for this year’s monsoon stating that the country might receive below normal rainfall, citing warming of the sea surface in the Pacific Ocean.
- The warming of the sea surface indicates towards an evolving El Nino, a natural process that inversely affects the intensity of monsoon winds in the subcontinent.
- In its initial forecast in April, Skymet said the country would receive 100 per cent of the LPA, which falls under normal category.
- In its fresh forecast, it added that August may end with 88 of LPA and September could perform a shade better and end with an LPA of 93%.
Heavy rain likely in UP
- Heavy to very heavy rain is very likely to occur at isolated places in many parts of Uttar Pradesh in next two days, predicts IMD.
- Heavy rain is also very likely at isolated segments in Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, west Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, east Madhya Pradesh, Konkan and Goa during the period.
- Monsoon had been active over Bihar and Punjab also.
HP records 19% deficit rain in July
- 240.3 mm rainfall: The Met Office said from July 1 to 30, Himachal Pradesh recorded 240.3 mm rainfall against the normal 296.5 mm, registering a deficient of 19%.
- 75-70% shortfall: Lahaul Spiti and Chamba registered maximum shortfall of 75 and 70%, respectively.
- 74% In the first three days of this month, the state virtually recorded departure of rainfall by 74% compared to average normal 34.4 mm in three days state average rainfall of 8.8 mm.
Temperatures up in Punjab, Haryana
- Maximum temperatures rose by a few notches at some places in Punjab and Haryana with Chandigarh recording a high of 34.8 degrees Celsius, two notches above normal, the Met department said on Saturday.
- However, the city witnessed light rainfall in the evening.
- Light to moderate rain may also occur at isolated places in both the states in next two days.